Old Man Look at My Life
By Cheap Abe Simpson humor aside, one issue that the media seem to be treating with extreme delicacy so far is McCain’s age. It of course is a legitimate concern, given that from a purely actuarial point of view, which doesn’t take into account the special health risks associated with being president, he has a 15% chance of dying over the next four years (at the least swing voters ought to be quite a bit more concerned with McCain’s veep choice than Obama’s).
Furthermore, the incidence of Alzheimer’s, which is extremely low prior to age 70, starts increasing exponentially at McCain’s present age, to the point where nearly half of 90 year-olds display significant symptoms. Using an n = 1 for American presidents elected in their 70s, Ronald Reagan was two years younger than McCain when he took office, and he was almost surely dealing with the first symptoms of Alzheimer’s onset before he left office.
Impressionistically, I remember far more media and popular culture discussion of Reagan’s age in 1980 than is taking place about McCain’s so far. And it was certainly a big issue in the 1984 campaign, until a clever one-liner during a presidential debate made it yet another issue that was unexpectedly Good For the Republicans.