Wild Guesses on a Saturday Afternoon

Scott and Matt’s rather under-analyzed prediction of a Clinton victory pushed me to make a quick and dirty assessment of my own.

Here are the states I expect Obama to win:
Washington
Louisiana
Nebraska
DC
Maryland
Virginia
Hawaii
Wyoming
Mississippi
North Carolina
Montana
South Dakota
Oregon

Here are the states I expect Clinton to win:
Wisconsin
Ohio
Rhode Island
Texas
Pennsylvania
Kentucky
West Virginia
Puerto Rico

And here are the states I have no idea about:
Indiana
Vermont
Maine

Further assuming that the winner of a state takes 55% of that states delegates (again, quick and dirty, but not terribly far off), this results in…. almost exactly a dead heat.

Now, a dead heat as to be counted as a Clinton advantage, as she’s doing better among superdelegates and the Florida-Michigan situation has yet to be resolved. Based on that, I’d probably have to very tentatively agree with Matt and Scott. The next step, though, is to identify any states that I’ve placed in the wrong category, or any good reasons to place the remaining four in one category or the other. I think that Wisconsin looms large in this analysis; the last I read Clinton had a nine point advantage….. although as John mentions below, the Wisconsin poll is an ARG poll, and consequently is suspect. I’m not sure that there’s a way for Clinton to win if she doesn’t take Wisconsin.

…upon the advice of the comments section shifted Oregon into Obama column. It’s a primary in a state with no African-Americans, but he did well enough in Washington to merit the call. With that and the size of the victories today, Obama comes in about 35 delegates ahead with the above state calls.