An Election Delayed?

An intriguing development in Canadian politics. With the Liberal government hanging by a thread, key Conservative Party founder and leadership runner-up Belinda Stronach has defected to the Liberals and will be joining Martin’s cabinet. (With bonus gossip implications!) This makes it likely that the Liberals will survive the non-confidence vote set for Thursday.

The additional significance of this is that, the fantasies of David Frum notwithstanding, there just aren’t a majority of votes for a small-c conservative party. The coalition trying to bring down the liberals is the same as the Mulroney coalition–conservative westerners and left-wing secessionist Quebecois–is, to state the obvious, not a stable governing coalition; it has little in common besides a shared interest in decentralizing federal power. A small Conservative minority government backed by the Bloc Quebecois, however, would be worse for the country than the Mulroney collation, in which Quebec nationalists were at least part of a national party. Stronach specifically citing Harper’s willingness to cut deals with the secessionists is an argument that will be used to devastating effect. The (genuinely awful) scandals of the Liberals may bring down Martin, and it could even lead to a temporary Conservative minority (although this is now less likely), but Stronach’s defection underlines the unlikelihood that the end Liberal domination of Canada is by no means imminent.