Taiwan Complications
By The Taiwan-China problem doesn’t seem that terribly complicated to me. Oddly enough, however, my students have no end of difficulty with it. The situation is relatively simple; China is dedicated to getting Taiwan back, and Taiwan doesn’t want to be brought back. Taiwanese arms and threats of US intervention deter China from taking military action. China has suggested that specific actions on the part of Taiwan (a declaration of independence or the development of nuclear weapons) will lead to war regardless of the deterrent conditions.
I believe the Chinese. I think they’ll opt for war if Taiwan declares independence, even if US intervention is guaranteed. It’s the only foreign policy situation that truly terrifies me, because a war between the US and China would be bad. John Bolton doesn’t think they’d go to war. He thinks they’ll back down in the face of a firm US commitment. He’s an idiot.
Why? The CCP can survive being defeated in war by the United States. Even if we win a war, we’ll not be marching into the Forbidden City, dictating peace to Hu Jintao, then installing Chen Shui-Bian as the new President of the re-united Republic of China. Rather, there’ll be some brutal fighting, lots of airstrikes, in all likelihood some ships sent to the bottom, and, finally, a large contingent of US troops deployed to Taiwan upon the acceptance of peace terms. The CCP can live with that. It’s not good, but the CCP will live with it. The CCP cannot, however, survive the peaceful independence of Taiwan. Reclaiming Taiwan is ENORMOUSLY popular in mainland China. The legitimacy of the CCP rests in part on its economic record, and in part on its nationalist record. Giving up Taiwan without a fight would spell doom for the CCP, and the leaders know it.
The Chinese are not bluffing when they say they’ll fight Taiwanese independence. Five years ago, Taiwan’s military capabilities may have been significant enough to resist, in the short-term, a Chinese invasion. Since that time Chinese air power, sea power, and amphibious capabilities have increased significantly, and the number of ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan has increased exponentially. Taiwan, on the other hand, has for all intents and purposes stopped buying weapons from the United States. This indicates to me that they’ve either given up any hope of resisting, or they’ve been quietly assured by the Bush administration that assistance will be forthcoming. I’m putting my money on both.
In the long term, Taiwan is incapable of resisting Chinese pressure without outside assistance. Five years ago, this meant that Taiwan could have held out for months without help. Now, it might mean that Taiwan could hold out for weeks without help. With US assistance, Taiwan can maintain its autonomy. We should be under no illusions about what this means, however. Given a Taiwanese declaration of independence, China will fight. Defeating China will not solve the problem; Beijing isn’t going to give up the reconquest of Taiwan as a central foreign policy goal even if we give them a bloody nose. The current US policy with regards to Taiwan is the correct one; ambiguity. The Taiwanese should not be assured of US assistance, and the Chinese should not be assured of US passivity.
If the Taiwanese, for some reason, decide to pursue independence, I’m honestly at a loss. It would be bad. Lots of people would die. More would die if we intervened. On the other hand, it would be a shame to watch authoritarian China eat a thriving democracy. The goal of US policy should be creating conditions under which we don’t have to make that decision.