No Plan "B"

The European Union has a plan “B” in the case of a non-ratification vote from the United Kingdom. Although any ratification failure formally scuttles the EU constitution, the Commission and the governments of several of the more important members of the EU have, reportedly, committed to proceeding with many of the reforms described in the constitution.

However, there is no plan “B” in case of a French vote against constitutional ratification. In short, the EU constitution, and the reforms it carries with it, cannot move forward without France. Now, it appears that French ratification is in serious doubt. The latest polls have “no” leading 54-46.

I have never been able to appreciate the arguments of those opposed to constitutional ratification. The EU, as it exists today, is a bureaucratic monster. It is governed by an amalgam of treaties stretching back to the 1950s. The European Parliament seats are determined by arcane political decisions rather than by any understandable formula. Qualified majority voting is growing increasingly unwieldy. The Commission itself is expanding beyond reasonable capacity; twenty-five commissioners now do work that was designed for twelve.

The constitution doesn’t solve all of these problems, but it certainly helps. I get the sense that the constitution is taking the blame for the very faults it is designed to remedy. The constitution will result in more political transparency, a sensible leadership scheme, increased democratic representation, and a smaller transnational bureaucracy.

It really seems like a no-brainer to me. I think that France will vote yes, regardless of what the polls now say; when it comes down to it, I expect that the French will appreciate what they have to gain. But, I really don’t know.