Raise Up Your Glass to Good King John

Allright, I figure now is a good time to make an election prediction. And I have it:

Kerry 284*
Bush 254*

I have Kerry winning WA, OR, CA, HI, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, OH, PA, NY, VT, NH, ME, RI, MA, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, NM.

The good news is that Kerry has some breathing space to lose Florida. I decided to move it into the Kerry column because 1)he’s ahead in the polls, 2)I suspect Bush’s Cuban-American vote will be down a bit, which would be fatal, and 3)I think the highly motivated turonout will be enough to overcome vote supression. But I concede it’s purely rationalistic; in my gut, I would cede Florida to Bush. But Kerry can win without it, and with Ohio and Pennsylvania all but out of play, Bush is in a world of hurt. Everything has to break right for him in close states, and I just don’t see it, barring remarkably successfuldisenfranchisement efforts…

*UPDATE: I’m convinced by Erik that NM will stay Dem, and I’m also convinced that I was being temporarily Polyannish about Florida. So this is my official last prediction, down from Kerry 302.