Military Performance in Gulf War II
By Fred Kaplan at Slate discusses the Army’s conclusions about the first stages of the Iraq II.
From a very cursory glance, seems pretty accurate to me. We have all seemed to forget that the invasion did not come off without a hitch; there were pretty serious concerns all the way up to the first assaults on Baghdad. When the Iraqi forces couldn’t inflict serious damage on a US convoy moving through their capital city, it became pretty clear that the game was up.
Implications for the Revolution in Military Affairs? RMA is supposed to be about recreating the battlefield space; it involves real time communication between the lowest level force elements, precise satellite intelligence, and stand off precision guided munitions. Locate enemy forces before engagment, communicate their position to all relevant platforms in the theatre, then hit them at range with whatever munitions you need to kill or disable them. If it works as planned, you can downsize your force considerably. The modern military organization is built around the cooperation of armor, artillery, and infantry; the RMA could eliminate the need for local artillery and much of the need for armor.
Caveats? It doesn’t really work, at least not yet. Contrary to Rumsfeld’s fevered imagination, neither the Afghanistan nor the Iraq conflicts really supported the contentions of the RMA advocates. Here’s anarticle by Steve Biddle on Afghanistan; unfortunately, you need to subscribe for the full text. He also has congressional testimony on the Iraq War. Long story short, PGMs help, but they don’t change the basic equation. Against a competent foe (which Al Qaeda is, but the Iraqi Army was not) you still need good infantry, armor, and local artillery, although the last is the most expendable.
I’ve also recently been reading Kenneth Pollack’s book on Arab military effectiveness, Arabs at War. I heartily recommend it to anyone who likes reading 800 page books about Syrian military effectiveness. Anyway, Arab military effectiveness ain’t high; serious problems stemming from bad civil-military relations and social stratification within Arab societies tend to make Arab armies among the worst in the world. The Iraqi Army consistently proved itself to be the worst in the Arab world. Something to keep in mind when you’re planning to invade Iran or North Korea.