On Palin’s Chances
By Silver’s take is, as always, worth reading. To me, Palin still clearly has a serious chance of getting the 2012 nomination, and the key is point #3. The GOP establishment is clearly going to unite against a candidate who might be historically weak, but if there’s a George W. Bush among prospective candidates they can actually focus on as an alternative, I haven’t seen him or her. And without that the establishment’s ability to control primary voters is highly dubious.